Introduction
Methods
Study design and participants
Survey wave | Baseline | Survey wave 2 | Survey wave 3 | Survey wave 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(March 2020) | (May/June 2020) | (July/August 2020) | (August/October 2020) | |
[n = 3,016] | [n = 4,374] | [n = 4,273] | [n = 4,239] | |
Sex, % (n) | ||||
Male | 51.5 (1,552) | 50.1 (2,190) | 50.1 (2,143) | 50.3 (2,131) |
Female | 48.5 (1,464) | 49.9 (2,184) | 49.9 (2,130) | 49.7 (2,108) |
Age, mean ± SD | 53.9 ± 14.0 | 56.4 ± 14.2 | 56.6 ± 14.1 | 56.4 ± 14.2 |
Region, % (n) | ||||
West Germany | 76.9 (2,318) | 74.5 (3,257) | 74.1 (3,166) | 74.4 (3,154) |
East Germany | 23.1 (698) | 25.5 (1,117) | 25.9 (1,107) | 25.6 (1,085) |
Nationality | ||||
German | 97.5 (2,941) | 97.6 (4,271) | 97.7 (4,174) | 97.6 (4,137) |
Others | 2.5 (75) | 2.4 (103) | 2.3 (99) | 2.4 (102) |
Children under 16 living in household, % (n) | ||||
No | 74.4 (2,243) | 78.0 (3,413) | 78.2 (3,340) | 77.8 (3,297) |
Yes | 25.6 (773) | 22.0 (961) | 21.8 (933) | 22.2 (942) |
Family status, % (n) | ||||
Single | 22.5 (677) | 20.2 (883) | 19.7 (843) | 19.9 (843) |
Married | 64.2 (1,935) | 63.6 (2,782) | 64.1 (2,739) | 63.9 (2,709) |
Divorced/widowed | 13.4 (404) | 16.2 (709) | 16.2 (691) | 16.2 (687) |
Household size, % (n) | ||||
1-person | 11.0 (333) | 13.1 (573) | 13.0 (555) | 12.8 (542) |
2-persons | 50.1 (1,512) | 52.3 (2,289) | 52.5 (2,242) | 52.4 (2,223) |
3-persons | 17.7 (533) | 15.9 (696) | 15.9 (679) | 16.0 (680) |
4 or more persons | 21.2 (638) | 18.7 (816) | 18.6 (797) | 18.7 (794) |
Big Five Inventory | ||||
Extraversion mean ± SD | 2.7 ± 0.9 | 2.7 ± 0.9 | 2.7 ± 0.9 | 2.7 ± 0.9 |
Agreeableness mean ± SD | 2.7 ± 0.7 | 2.7 ± 0.7 | 2.7 ± 0.7 | 2.7 ± 0.7 |
Conscientiousness mean ± SD | 3.4 ± 0.7 | 3.4 ± 0.7 | 3.4 ± 0.7 | 3.4 ± 0.7 |
Neuroticism mean ± SD | 2.3 ± 0.8 | 2.3 ± 0.8 | 2.3 ± 0.8 | 2.3 ± 0.8 |
Open-Mindedness mean ± SD | 2.9 ± 0.9 | 2.9 ± 0.9 | 2.9 ± 0.9 | 2.9 ± 0.9 |
Income, % (n) | ||||
Low | 23.7 (714) | 29.9 (1,310) | 30.2 (1,291) | 29.9 (1,267) |
Intermediate | 38.4 (1,160) | 38.1 (1,665) | 37.8 (1,617) | 37.6 (1,596) |
High | 37.9 (1,142) | 32.0 (1,399) | 31.9 (1,365) | 32.5 (1,376) |
Educational status, % (n) | ||||
Low | 11.1 (333) | 17.8 (777) | 17.9 (765) | 17.4 (738) |
Intermediate | 31.2 (942) | 33.4 (1,461) | 33.7 (1,441) | 33.5 (1,419) |
High | 57.7 (1,741) | 48.8 (2,136) | 48.4 (2,067) | 49.1 (2,082) |
Measurements
Dependent variables
Independent variable and covariates
Statistical analyses
Survey wave | Baseline survey | Survey wave 2 | Survey wave 3 | Survey wave 4 | P-Trendb | P-Trendb | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(March 2020) | (May/June 2020) | (July/August 2020) | (August/October 2020) | (linear) | (quadratic) | |||||||||
Mean | 95%-CI | P-valuea | Mean | 95%-CI | P-valuea | Mean | 95%-CI | P-valuea | Mean | 95%-CI | P-valuea | |||
Preventive behaviour | ||||||||||||||
Educational status | ||||||||||||||
Low | 47.9 | 46.0–49.8 | Ref | 59.8 | 58.5–61.1 | Ref | 54.9 | 53.6–56.2 | Ref | 53.6 | 52.0–54.7 | Ref | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Intermediate | 50.1 | 49.1–51.1 | 0.031 | 62.1 | 61.3–63.0 | 0.002 | 55.4 | 54.5–56.4 | 0.516 | 53.6 | 52.7–54.6 | 0.749 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
High | 52.4 | 51.6–53.1 | < 0.001 | 63.6 | 62.9–64.3 | < 0.001 | 57.0 | 56.2–57.7 | 0.007 | 56.4 | 55.6–57.2 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Total | 51.2 | 50.6–51.8 | 62.4 | 61.9–63.0 | 56.1 | 55.5–56.6 | 55.0 | 54.4–55.5 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||||
Risk perception | ||||||||||||||
Educational status | ||||||||||||||
Low | 46.4 | 44.5–48.4 | Ref | 35.5 | 34.3–36.8 | Ref | 35.0 | 33.8–36.2 | Ref | 36.2 | 35.0–37.4 | Ref | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Intermediate | 49.3 | 48.1–50.4 | 0.009 | 38.5 | 37.5–39.5 | < 0.001 | 37.1 | 36.2–38.0 | 0.003 | 37.6 | 36.7–38.6 | 0.056 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
High | 52.0 | 51.2–52.7 | < 0.001 | 40.6 | 39.9–41.3 | < 0.001 | 38.8 | 38.1–39.5 | < 0.001 | 40.0 | 39.3–40.7 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Total | 50.5 | 49.9–51.1 | 39.0 | 38.5–39.5 | 37.5 | 37.0–38.0 | 38.6 | 38.0–39.1 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||||
Perceived effectiveness | ||||||||||||||
Educational status | ||||||||||||||
Low | 78.4 | 76.5–80.3 | Ref | 64.0 | 62.6–65.4 | Ref | 59.8 | 58.4–61.2 | Ref | 49.9 | 48.6–51.3 | Ref | < 0.001 | 0.009 |
Intermediate | 80.2 | 79.1–81.3 | 0.103 | 62.8 | 51.7–63.8 | 0.146 | 57.3 | 56.3–58.4 | 0.006 | 46.9 | 45.9–47.9 | 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
High | 78.7 | 77.9–79.5 | 0.782 | 63.7 | 62.8–64.5 | 0.673 | 59.4 | 58.5–60.2 | 0.639 | 50.2 | 49.3–51.0 | 0.762 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Total | 79.1 | 78.5–79.7 | 63.4 | 62.8–64.0 | 58.8 | 58.2–59.4 | 49.0 | 48.4–49.6 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||||
Trust | ||||||||||||||
Educational status | ||||||||||||||
Low | 72.8 | 70.8–74.8 | Ref | 68.1 | 66.7–69.5 | Ref | 68.8 | 67.3–70.2 | Ref | 65.0 | 63.5–66.4 | Ref | < 0.001 | 0.157 |
Intermediate | 72.3 | 71.2–73.5 | 0.649 | 67.2 | 66.2–68.2 | 0.265 | 67.3 | 66.2–68.3 | 0.087 | 64.0 | 63.0–65.1 | 0.288 | < 0.001 | 0.001 |
High | 72.6 | 71.8–73.3 | 0.784 | 68.5 | 67.7–69.2 | 0.661 | 68.7 | 67.9–69.5 | 0.970 | 66.5 | 65.7–67.3 | 0.066 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Total | 72.5 | 71.9–73.1 | 68.0 | 67.4–68.5 | 68.2 | 67.7–68.8 | 65.4 | 64.8–66.0 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | |
Preventive behaviours | ||||
SII | 6.565** | 6.779** | 7.231** | 6.055** |
(2.131,10.998) | (2.337,11.222) | (2.779,11.683) | (1.566,10.544) | |
Trend (linear) | 10.59*** | 10.52*** | 10.58*** | 10.61*** |
(8.960,12.230) | (8.886,12.155) | (8.942,12.208) | (8.980,12.247) | |
Trend (quadratic) | -3.343*** | -3.324*** | -3.335*** | -3.344*** |
(-3.827,-2.860) | (-3.808,-2.840) | (-3.818,-2.852) | (-3.827,-2.861) | |
SII*Trend (linear) | -1.037 | -0.967 | -1.008 | -1.050 |
(-3.631,1.556) | (-3.561,1.626) | (-3.599,1.583) | (-3.641,1.541) | |
SII*Trend (quadratic) | 0.316 | 0.296 | 0.303 | 0.313 |
(-0.463,1.095) | (-0.483,1.075) | (-0.475,1.082) | (-0.466,1.091) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.032 | 0.042 | 0.077 | 0.079 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 13.069 | 12.928 | 12.519 | 12.494 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 12.210 | 12.210 | 12.210 | 12.210 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
Risk perception | ||||
SII | 11.23*** | 10.44*** | 9.443*** | 8.749*** |
(7.046,15.420) | (6.242,14.636) | (5.222,13.663) | (4.491,13.007) | |
Trend (linear) | -10.81*** | -10.80*** | -10.72*** | -10.68*** |
(-12.353,-9.267) | (-12.344,-9.259) | (-12.265,-9.180) | (-12.223,-9.138) | |
Trend (quadratic) | 2.617*** | 2.615*** | 2.597*** | 2.587*** |
(2.160,3.073) | (2.158,3.071) | (2.140,3.053) | (2.131,3.044) | |
SII*Trend (linear) | -2.440 | -2.432 | -2.488* | -2.543* |
(-4.888,0.007) | (-4.879,0.015) | (-4.935,-0.042) | (-4.990,-0.096) | |
SII*Trend (quadratic) | 0.519 | 0.517 | 0.528 | 0.541 |
(-0.217,1.254) | (-0.218,1.252) | (-0.207,1.263) | (-0.194,1.276) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.080 | 0.088 | 0.098 | 0.099 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 12.392 | 12.306 | 12.195 | 12.176 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 11.500 | 11.500 | 11.500 | 11.500 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
Perceived effectiveness | ||||
SII | -0.145 | -0.269 | 0.217 | -0.688 |
(-5.036,4.747) | (-5.174,4.636) | (-4.716,5.150) | (-5.662,4.285) | |
Trend (linear) | -13.67*** | -13.70*** | -13.69*** | -13.67*** |
(-15.487,-11.858) | (-15.514,-11.885) | (-15.502,-11.874) | (-15.482,-11.853) | |
Trend (quadratic) | 1.276*** | 1.283*** | 1.281*** | 1.276*** |
(0.739,1.812) | (0.746,1.819) | (0.744,1.817) | (0.739,1.813) | |
SII*Trend (linear) | 0.0764 | 0.105 | 0.101 | 0.085 |
(-2.802,2.955) | (-2.774,2.983) | (-2.777,2.980) | (-2.794,2.963) | |
SII*Trend (quadratic) | 0.291 | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0.286 |
(-0.574,1.156) | (-0.582,1.148) | (-0.582,1.148) | (-0.578,1.151) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.080 | 0.088 | 0.098 | 0.099 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 12.392 | 12.306 | 12.195 | 12.176 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 11.500 | 11.500 | 11.500 | 11.500 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
Trust | ||||
SII | -1.718 | -1.806 | 0.962 | -0.851 |
(-5.543,2.107) | (-5.636,2.024) | (-2.904,4.827) | (-4.777,3.075) | |
Trend (linear) | -4.028*** | -4.059*** | -4.118*** | -4.099*** |
(-5.343,-2.713) | (-5.374,-2.744) | (-5.432,-2.803) | (-5.413,-2.784) | |
Trend (quadratic) | 0.423* | 0.431* | 0.446* | 0.441* |
(0.035,0.811) | (0.043,0.819) | (0.057,0.834) | (0.053,0.830) | |
SII*Trend (linear) | 1.320 | 1.353 | 1.394 | 1.377 |
(-0.764,3.404) | (-0.731,3.436) | (-0.690,3.477) | (-0.706,3.461) | |
SII*Trend (quadratic) | -0.005 | -0.015 | -0.025 | -0.021 |
(-0.630,0.620) | (-0.639,0.610) | (-0.649,0.600) | (-0.646,0.604) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.014 | 0.044 | 0.065 | 0.069 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 16.339 | 16.004 | 15.757 | 15.711 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 9.729 | 9.729 | 9.729 | 9.729 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | beta (95%-CI) | |
Preventive behaviours | ||||
RII | 20.09*** | 20.46*** | 21.20*** | 19.03*** |
(12.354,27.826) | (12.708,28.213) | (13.425,28.965) | (11.193,26.866) | |
Trend (linear) | 5.350*** | 5.222*** | 5.316*** | 5.384*** |
(2.504,8.197) | (2.375,8.068) | (2.472,8.160) | (2.539,8.228) | |
Trend (quadratic) | -1.426*** | -1.393** | -1.412** | -1.428*** |
(-2.268,-0.584) | (-2.235,-0.550) | (-2.254,-0.571) | (-2.269,-0.586) | |
RII*Trend (linear) | -6.706** | -6.584** | -6.655** | -6.728** |
(-11.222,-2.190) | (-11.100,-2.069) | (-11.166,-2.144) | (-11.240,-2.217) | |
RII*Trend (quadratic) | 1.842** | 1.808** | 1.820** | 1.837** |
(0.486,3.198) | (0.451,3.164) | (0.465,3.175) | (0.481,3.192) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.005 | 0.016 | 0.052 | 0.054 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 23.192 | 22.944 | 22.223 | 22.176 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 21.241 | 21.241 | 21.241 | 21.241 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
Risk perception | ||||
RII | 16.53** | 14.51** | 12.41* | 10.79* |
(6.146,26.908) | (4.108,24.920) | (1.942,22.877) | (0.223,21.350) | |
Trend (linear) | 1.706 | 1.726 | 1.904 | 2.002 |
(-2.110,5.523) | (-2.089,5.542) | (-1.912,5.719) | (-1.814,5.819) | |
Trend (quadratic) | -0.322 | -0.327 | -0.367 | -0.39 |
(-1.451,0.807) | (-1.456,0.802) | (-1.496,0.762) | (-1.519,0.739) | |
RII*Trend (linear) | 0.366 | 0.388 | 0.259 | 0.127 |
(-5.688,6.420) | (-5.665,6.441) | (-5.793,6.311) | (-5.926,6.179) | |
RII*Trend (quadratic) | -0.251 | -0.256 | -0.23 | -0.199 |
(-2.069,1.567) | (-2.074,1.562) | (-2.048,1.588) | (-2.016,1.619) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.028 | 0.0290 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 31.292 | 31.075 | 30.811 | 30.765 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 28.441 | 28.441 | 28.441 | 28.441 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
Perceived effectiveness | ||||
RII | -2.953 | -3.226 | -2.339 | -3.793 |
(-11.274,5.368) | (-11.571,5.120) | (-10.733,6.054) | (-12.257,4.671) | |
Trend (linear) | -0.778 | -0.812 | -0.797 | -0.764 |
(-3.861,2.305) | (-3.895,2.271) | (-3.880,2.287) | (-3.848,2.319) | |
Trend (quadratic) | -0.197 | -0.188 | -0.191 | -0.198 |
(-1.109,0.716) | (-1.100,0.725) | (-1.103,0.722) | (-1.111,0.714) | |
RII*Trend (linear) | 1.414 | 1.45 | 1.448 | 1.421 |
(-3.477,6.306) | (-3.441,6.342) | (-3.444,6.339) | (-3.471,6.313) | |
RII*Trend (quadratic) | 0.303 | 0.293 | 0.292 | 0.298 |
(-1.167,1.772) | (-1.176,1.763) | (-1.177,1.762) | (-1.172,1.767) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.010 | 0.011 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 23.487 | 23.466 | 23.326 | 23.311 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 23.018 | 23.018 | 23.018 | 23.018 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
Trust | ||||
RII | -4.287 | -4.401 | -0.288 | -2.934 |
(-9.890,1.316) | (-10.011,1.209) | (-5.950,5.374) | (-8.686,2.818) | |
Trend (linear) | -1.592 | -1.637 | -1.722 | -1.695 |
(-3.515,0.331) | (-3.559,0.285) | (-3.645,0.200) | (-3.617,0.227) | |
Trend (quadratic) | 0.104 | 0.116 | 0.137 | 0.131 |
(-0.464,0.672) | (-0.452,0.683) | (-0.431,0.705) | (-0.437,0.698) | |
RII*Trend (linear) | 2.853 | 2.900 | 2.959 | 2.936 |
(-0.195,5.900) | (-0.147,5.946) | (-0.087,6.006) | (-0.110,5.982) | |
RII*Trend (quadratic) | -0.201 | -0.214 | -0.229 | -0.224 |
(-1.115,0.713) | (-1.128,0.699) | (-1.143,0.685) | (-1.138,0.690) | |
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.001 | 0.031 | 0.052 | 0.057 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{u}\) | 24.074 | 23.584 | 23.217 | 23.150 |
\({\widehat{\sigma }}_{e}\) | 14.225 | 14.225 | 14.225 | 14.225 |
\(\widehat{\rho }\) | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 |