Background
Methods
Data source
Statistical analysis
Results
Demographic characteristics
Variable | Number | Missing rate(%) | Prevalence | OR | 95% CI of OR (p-value) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
faller | Not faller | |||||
Total | 1598 | 6758 | 19.1 | |||
Gender | 0 | |||||
Male | 617 | 3295 | 15.8 | Reference | – | |
Female | 981 | 3463 | 22.1 | 1.51* | 1.35–1.69(< 0.01) | |
Age | 0 | |||||
65–75 years old | 792 | 3917 | 16.8 | Reference | – | |
≥ 75 years old | 806 | 2841 | 22.1 | 1.40* | 1.26–1.57(< 0.01) | |
Area | 0.28 | |||||
Non-urbanized | 1255 | 5241 | 19.3 | Reference | – | |
Urbanized | 337 | 1500 | 18.3 | 0.94 | 0.82–1.07 (0.34) | |
Education | 0.78 | |||||
Not high | 1434 | 5662 | 20.2 | Reference | – | |
High | 154 | 1041 | 12.9 | 0.58* | 0.49–0.70(< 0.01) | |
Living alone | 0 | |||||
No | 1374 | 6019 | 18.6 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 224 | 739 | 23.3 | 1.33* | 1.13–1.56(< 0.01) | |
Marital status | 0 | |||||
Married | 886 | 4320 | 17.0 | Reference | – | |
Single or others | 712 | 2438 | 22.6 | 1.43* | 1.28–1.59(< 0.01) | |
Working status | 0 | |||||
Working | 174 | 1069 | 14.0 | Reference | – | |
Retired or others | 1424 | 5689 | 20.0 | 1.53* | 1.29–1.81(< 0.01) | |
Income | 4.61 | |||||
≥ 30,000 | 732 | 3307 | 18.1 | Reference | – | |
< 30,000 | 799 | 3133 | 20.3 | 1.15* | 1.03–1.29 (0.01) | |
Diabetes | 0.14 | |||||
No | 1203 | 5462 | 18.0 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 391 | 1288 | 23.3 | 1.38* | 1.21–1.57(< 0.01) | |
Hyperlipidemia | 1.40 | |||||
No | 1148 | 5095 | 18.4 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 415 | 1581 | 20.8 | 1.17* | 1.03–1.32 (0.02) | |
Asthma | 0 | |||||
No | 1490 | 6396 | 18.9 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 108 | 362 | 23.0 | 1.28* | 1.03–1.60 (0.03) | |
Cardiovascular disease | 0 | |||||
No | 1228 | 5633 | 17.9 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 370 | 1125 | 24.7 | 1.51* | 1.32–1.72(< 0.01) | |
Osteoporosis | 0.22 | |||||
No | 1108 | 5298 | 17.3 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 486 | 1446 | 25.2 | 1.61* | 1.42–1.82(< 0.01) | |
Psycho disease | 0 | |||||
No | 1542 | 6582 | 19.0 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 56 | 176 | 24.1 | 1.36* | 1.002–1.85 (0.04) | |
Epilepsy | 0 | |||||
No | 1589 | 6744 | 19.1 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 9 | 14 | 39.1 | 2.73* | 1.18–6.31 (0.02) | |
Parkinson’s disease | 0.13 | |||||
No | 1539 | 6644 | 18.8 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 52 | 110 | 32.1 | 2.04* | 1.46–2.85(< 0.01) | |
Dementia | 0 | |||||
Noa | 1482 | 6550 | 18.5 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 116 | 208 | 35.8 | 2.46* | 1.95–3.11(< 0.01) | |
Osteoarthritis | 0 | |||||
Noa | 1307 | 5921 | 18.1 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 291 | 837 | 25.8 | 1.58* | 1.36–1.83(< 0.01) | |
Urinary incontinence | 0.34 | |||||
No | 1068 | 5321 | 16.7 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 523 | 1416 | 27.0 | 1.84* | 1.63–2.08(< 0.01) | |
Hypertension | 0.12 | |||||
No | 739 | 3561 | 17.2 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 855 | 3191 | 21.1 | 1.29* | 1.16–1.44(< 0.01) | |
Visual impairment | 0.11 | |||||
No | 277 | 1288 | 17.7 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 1321 | 5461 | 19.5 | 1.13 | 0.98–1.30 (0.11) | |
Hearing impairment | 0.04 | |||||
No | 1192 | 5486 | 17.8 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 406 | 1269 | 24.2 | 1.47* | 1.30–1.67(< 0.01) | |
Paralysis of limbs | 0.69 | |||||
No | 1381 | 6183 | 18.3 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 203 | 531 | 27.7 | 1.71* | 1.44–2.03(< 0.01) | |
Self-report health status | 9.16 | |||||
Health | 488 | 3248 | 13.1 | Reference | – | |
poor | 896 | 2959 | 23.2 | 2.02* | 1.79–2.28(< 0.01) | |
Pain | 2.42 | |||||
No | 519 | 3386 | 13.3 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 1053 | 3196 | 24.8 | 2.15* | 1.92–2.41(< 0.01) | |
Hospital visit in the past year | 0 | |||||
No | 940 | 5337 | 15.0 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 658 | 1421 | 31.6 | 2.63* | 2.34–2.95(< 0.01) | |
BMI | 9.72 | |||||
> 24 | 696 | 2848 | 19.6 | Reference | – | |
≤ 24 | 724 | 3276 | 18.1 | 0.90 | 0.81–1.02 (0.09) | |
ADLs | 0.08 | |||||
< 3 activities | 1299 | 6135 | 17.5 | Reference | – | |
≥ 3 activities | 299 | 616 | 32.7 | 2.29* | 1.97–2.67(< 0.01) | |
IADLs | 0.3 | |||||
Good | 833 | 4767 | 14.9 | Reference | – | |
Poor | 761 | 1970 | 27.9 | 2.21* | 1.98–2.47(< 0.01) | |
Mobility | 0.35 | |||||
Good | 433 | 3414 | 11.3 | Reference | – | |
Poor | 1161 | 3319 | 25.9 | 2.76* | 2.45–3.11(< 0.01) | |
Regular exercise | 3.47 | |||||
No | 1445 | 6050 | 19.3 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 82 | 489 | 14.4 | 0.70* | 0.55–0.89(< 0.01) | |
Alcohol consumer | 0.37 | |||||
No | 1434 | 5767 | 19.9 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 157 | 967 | 14.0 | 0.65* | 0.55–0.78(< 0.01) | |
Current smoker | 0 | |||||
No | 1439 | 5863 | 19.7 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 159 | 895 | 15.1 | 0.72* | 0.61–0.86(< 0.01) | |
Betel nut chewing | 0 | |||||
No | 1536 | 6536 | 19.0 | Reference | – | |
Yes | 62 | 222 | 21.8 | 1.19 | 0.89–1.58 (0.24) |
Potential predictor selection
Predictors | Regression coefficient | Odds Ratio | P-value | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
Constant | −2.73 | |||
Age (≥75) | 0.08 | 1.08 | 0.28 | 0 |
Female | 0.45 | 1.57* | 0.02 | 2 |
Live alone | 0.45 | 1.56* | < 0.01 | 2 |
High education | −0.09 | 0.91 | 0.59 | 0 |
Retired | −0.03 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0 |
diabetes | 0.003 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0 |
Involuntary loss of urine | 0.30 | 1.36* | < 0.01 | 2 |
Self-perceived Health (poor) | 0.28 | 1.32* | 0.02 | 1 |
Pain | 0.41 | 1.51* | < 0.01 | 2 |
Hospital admission in the past year | 0.88 | 2.42* | < 0.01 | 4 |
ADLs (poor) | 0.25 | 1.29* | 0.03 | 1 |
Mobility (poor) | 0.52 | 1.68* | < 0.01 | 3 |
Cut-off in the total risk score | A(n) | B(n) | C(n) | D(n) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Σ% | PV+(%) | PV-(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 vs. ≥1 | 1547 | 6029 | 51 | 729 | 96.8 | 10.8 | 107 | 20.4 | 93.5 |
0–1 vs. ≥2 | 1522 | 5773 | 76 | 985 | 95.2 | 14.6 | 110 | 20.9 | 92.8 |
0–2 vs. ≥3 | 1450 | 4923 | 148 | 1835 | 90.7 | 27.2 | 118 | 22.8 | 92.5 |
0–3 vs. ≥4 | 1401 | 4367 | 197 | 2391 | 87.7 | 35.4 | 123 | 24.3 | 92.4 |
0–4 vs. ≥5 | 1315 | 3808 | 283 | 2950 | 82.3 | 43.7 | 126 | 25.7 | 91.2 |
0–5 vs. ≥6 | 1201 | 3193 | 397 | 3565 | 75.2 | 52.8 | 128a | 27.3 | 90.0 |
0–6 vs. ≥7 | 1063 | 2621 | 535 | 4137 | 66.5 | 61.2 | 128a | 28.9 | 88.5 |
0–7 vs. ≥8 | 911 | 2091 | 687 | 4667 | 57.0 | 69.1 | 126 | 30.3 | 87.2 |
0–8 vs. ≥9 | 720 | 1427 | 878 | 5331 | 45.1 | 78.9 | 124 | 33.5 | 85.9 |
0–9 vs. ≥10 | 604 | 1099 | 994 | 5659 | 37.8 | 83.7 | 122 | 35.5 | 85.1 |
0–10 vs. ≥11 | 419 | 641 | 1179 | 6117 | 26.2 | 90.5 | 117 | 39.5 | 83.8 |
0–11 vs. ≥12 | 335 | 470 | 1263 | 6288 | 21.0 | 93.0 | 114 | 41.6 | 83.3 |
0–12 vs. ≥13 | 189 | 208 | 1409 | 6550 | 11.8 | 96.9 | 109 | 47.6 | 82.3 |
0–13 vs. ≥14 | 136 | 142 | 1462 | 6616 | 8.5 | 97.9 | 106 | 48.9 | 81.9 |
0–14 vs. ≥15 | 43 | 39 | 1555 | 6719 | 2.7 | 99.4 | 102 | 52.4 | 81.2 |
0–15 vs. ≥16 | 12 | 10 | 1586 | 6748 | 0.8 | 99.9 | 101 | 54.5 | 81.0 |
0–16 vs. ≥17 | 4 | 3 | 1594 | 6755 | 0.3 | 100.0 | 100 | 57.1 | 80.9 |
Discussion
A limitation in this study was that some data, such as physical activity volume, were self-reported. This may have reduced the accuracy of data and thus resulted in recall bias. The fall experience was recalled retrospectively, and this may result in recall bias. Another limitation was that impact and severity of falls were not evaluated in this study. Moreover, our predicting model did not include a history of falls, which is known as a strong predictors of falls.